40th to 17th to 4th to ?

Jacob Wheeler surged to 4th place with today's best bag.

For anyone who has paid attention to the Forrest Wood Cup through the first three days, it would be tough to not have an eye on Jacob Wheeler.

Last year's FWC champion came out of the gate slowly, with a 7-pound, 4-ounce first-day catch that put him in 40th place out of 46 anglers. It was popular to say that things could flip flop on Day 2, and a lot of anglers did indeed move up or down notably. Still, I'm not sure anyone expected Wheeler to flop things quite the way he did. Wheeler's 13-7 Day 2 catch was second best brought to the scales that day and jumped him all the into 17th place, which put him within the cut and allowed him to fish again today. He struck again today, bringing in 14 pounds, 4 ounces and jumping all the way to 4th place. Wheeler's bag, which was the best catch brought to the scales on Day 3, put him 4 1/2 pounds behind leader Bryan Thrift.

Thrift has gotten all his biggest fish off a single spot, and he said he had to fish two hours in that spot to catch one fish today. He has seemed somewhat surprised by what he has caught all week. Wheeler, on the other hand, figured something out on Day 2, and it has worked very well for him for two days. He appears to be getting stronger as the tournament progresses.

That's not to say he's going to overtake Thrift (or that either will be the winner for that matter). Although Thrift has seemed surprised by each day's catch, the fact is that he keeps catching them very well.

Five of the ten anglers remaining are within five pounds of one another at the top, and three of them (including Thrift) are still ahead of Wheeler. Randall Tharp, who led for two days and slipped to second today, believes he knows what he needs to do to bring it home. Larry Nixon found muddy water in his best spot today and it didn't produce at all, leaving him scrambling. The Red is a highly dynamic river, though, and that mud could settle tonight and put Nixon right back where he wants to be. Meanwhile, Mark Rose said yesterday that he thought his best bags were still ahead. He wasn't able to prove that today, but tomorrow things might be different.

The ten pros who remain take off tomorrow at 7:00 a.m. Central. The weigh-in begins at 5:00. If you can't be here to watch it in person, you can watch it live on flwoutdoors.com.

Moving Day at Forrest Wood Cup

Larry Nixon, 3rd place going into Day 3 of the Forrest Wood Cup

With only 10 pounds separating the 20 anglers who remain and two days left to fish, I still think the 2013 Forrest Wood Cup is anyone's tournament. The pros toward the bottom would have to have a lot of things work their way, including a bit of stumbling by the anglers at the top, but there are big wild card fish in the Red River, and groups of fish that have produced for someone can run out in four days. Plus, it's a river, and a change in flow, water color or temperature could change fortunes in either direction. Of course, to compete tomorrow, an angler has to finish in the Top 10 after today.

Mark Rose, who sits in 5th place, 5 pounds out, said that a conditions has been changing that should favor his best big-fish spots -- waters he hasn't fished yet during the competition. He said on stage last night that he believe his best days are yet to come. I just read on the @FLWFishing Twitter feed, by the way, that Rose's other pattern is cranking downriver and that improved clarity is the key. He is doing that this morning and got an early limit in the boat.

Meanwhile, Ray Scheide, sitting one place ahead of Rose, brought in 12-12 yesterday, but word is that he had some seriously big fish get off and that he's fishing in mega-thick cover in a backwater that holds some heavyweight fish. He says he figured out a couple of things yesterday and that if he could capitalize today, he could "blow the doors off this thing."

Then there's Larry Nixon. The General is the only angler in field to bring in 13 pounds or more both days, and he apparently has a specific big-bass spot that has been producing for him. He also brings unparalleled experience.

Randal Tharp and Bryan Thrift, in first and second, respectively, both backed giant18-pound-plus bags with solid 11-pound sacks and are separated by only 4 ounces. Both believe they would need at least one more legitimately big day to take home the Forrest Wood Cup and the $500,000 check. Tharp seems confident that he's around the right fish. Thrift still acts surprised by the big fish he's catching but continues to get it done.

Looking down through the top 20, it's roughly a three way split among anglers who had a pretty big first day and a mediocre second day, anglers who did the opposite and moved up yesterday, and anglers who had brought in two solid limits. Last year's champ, Jacob Wheeler, made the most noteworthy jump, following a weak first day that had him in in 40th place with one of yesterday's best bags (13-7), which jumped into the cut in 18th place. Another day like that today, and he'd be fishing for all the marbles tomorrow.

If you want to track how things are progressing during the day, the #FLWFishing Twitter feed is tough to top. They have guys on the water watching and posting regular reports. Of course, they can't follow everyone, with 20 pros still fishing, so who knows which angler might bring a big surprise to this afternoon's weigh-in?

Rethinking Top Bags

Randall Tharp, Day 1 leader, Forrest Wood Cup, FLW photo

During the morning's takeoff show, Randall Tharp was asked about finding another kicker, and he pointed out that the biggest fish in his 18-8 bag on Day 1 of the Forrest Wood Cup weighed five and change. His smallest was around three pounds. While it's true a really good kicker could put any pro in the mix and was the missing element for many anglers in the field, Tharp's bag actually consisted of five quality fish, suggesting that he might have been onto something a little different -- yesterday at least. And early word from the @FLWfishing Twitter feed says that he already has a couple of good fish in the box.

Considering Tharp's catch more fully made me look closer at Bryan Thrift's bag and do a little math. Thrift's catch obviously was aided by a 7 1/2-pound bass, which he caught on a shaky head and by his own admission did not expect to find. Still, if you take 7 1/2 pounds off his total and divide the remaining weight by four, his other fish averaged close to three pounds. Make the fifth fish a 3-pounder and he'd still be around 14 pound, and still in second place. Oh, and he also has a 3 1/2-pounder aboard already today.

While I'm talking about backing yesterday's catch, it's worth noting, that Adrian Avena (4th yesterday) was already culling by 8:00 a.m. today, and Mark Rose (5th) has a 4-pounder in the box. I'm not saying the leaderboard won't shift. It may shift a lot, and specific kicker fish might play a huge part. I just realized I had been shortchanging the total efforts of Tharp and Thrift by only talking about kickers and wanted to clarify a bit.

Day 1 Themes - Kickers & Change

Day 1 Forrest Wood Cup Leader, Randall Tharp

"I'm catching a ton of fish. I just didn't ever find the big one that I needed."

That quote remains unattributed because it came from a bunch of different pros, with only slight variances in wording. Kicker fish, or a lack there of, was one of a couple of themes I heard repeated again and again as Forrest Wood Cup competitors crossed the stage during the Day 1 weigh-in. The leaders had a big fish or two and were very thankful for them. Virtually everyone else who commented on their catch spoke about lacking that big-fish element.

Every pro except two caught a limit, and nearly 2/3 of the field weighed between 8 and 12 pounds. Four anglers -- Randall Tharp, Bryan Thrift, Larry Nixon and Adrian Avena -- weighed in 13 pounds or more, with Tharp and Thrift catching 18-8 and 18-7, respectively, for first and second place. Tomorrow will be very telling as we see whether any of the same guys bring in the biggest bags or whether three or four different anglers come across the kickers that produce really big bags.

Another thing I heard about quite a bit was that some condition had changed enough since Tuesday's final practice day to alter the way a specific group of fish behaved. In a couple of cases, pros who really caught them in practice failed to get the same bites from the same fish and believed it was attributable to a 10-degree drop in the water temperature. Others talked about changes in positioning of floating weeds. David Fritts spoke of some "little stuff" floating on top in one of his best areas, which altered the way he was able to fish. Change, of course, goes with river fishing, so it's not impossible that we'll here about much more stuff that has changed tomorrow.

Tomorrow the full field fishes again. After tomorrow, only the top 20 remain, and only the top 10 get to fish for the championship on Sunday.